Eight years ago, Democrats flipped more than 40 seats with the help of dozens of veterans and candidates with service backgrounds motivated to run as a check on President Donald Trump.
This year’s midterm elections are unlikely to go down quite like that.
Both parties agree the map is much narrower due in part to mid-cycle redistricting and increased political polarization. And while Democrats enter the cycle with built-in advantages, they’re also less popular with voters than they’ve been in years. Whichever party controls the House next year might enjoy just a slim majority.
“The wind is at Democrats’ back, but people underestimate how steep the hill to climb is,” said Jesse Ferguson, a strategist who has worked for House Democrats’ campaign arm. “If I was judging on the environment, I’d rather be us, and if I was judging on the terrain, I’d rather be them.”
Both parties are hoping for shifts in their direction. Republicans are betting that voters’ views of the economy will improve in the coming months, while Democrats see an opening on immigration, where voters have cooled on the administration’s approach.
Public outrage has grown after federal agents fatally shot two protesters in Minneapolis – a mother of three and an ICU nurse – and administration officials made unsubstantiated initial claims about the circumstances around the killings.
“I think President Trump has started in the right direction, but … we cannot have any more Minnesotas,” said Sarah Chamberlain, the president and chief executive of the Republican Main Street Partnership, which works to elect GOP moderates.
The nationwide redistricting fight is still ongoing, and it’s far too early to know what issues will be top of mind for voters in November. But here’s how the two parties see the field nine months out.
The Democratic path to a majority
On paper, Democrats have reasons to be bullish about November.
The party out of power in Washington has picked up House seats in the midterm elections in all but two elections since 1938. The trust voters have long placed in Trump on the economy is waning, as are his approval ratings on immigration enforcement. And Democrats have been overperforming in special elections over the last year, most recently in a Texas state Senate race.
Democrats also seem to have found a message that is resonating with voters: affordability. Elections in New Jersey, Virginia and New York City last year all showed that focusing intensely on the rising cost of health care, utilities, groceries and housing is a winning blueprint for a party that lost support with working class and minority voters in 2024.
But the road ahead isn’t completely smooth for Democrats. Republican groups, including the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) and the Republican National Committee, have outraised their Democratic counterparts. And MAGA Inc, a Trump-aligned super PAC, ended 2025 with $300 million.
Democrats are also still in the process of rebuilding their public image.
While more voters say they would be likely to vote for a generic Democrat over a Republican, the party’s leaders are less popular than they were heading into the 2018 midterm elections. A recent CNN/SSRS poll found that Democratic leaders’ approval rating was 44 points underwater in January, compared to 28 points underwater in September 2017.
“Those that are assuming Democrats will take the House are making a mistake,” Ferguson said. “It is not a foregone conclusion – there’s a path to victory. This is not a cakewalk.”
Republicans’ case for a midterm surprise
Republicans are tying their hopes of defying history to the electoral map.
There are far fewer competitive seats now than there were eight years ago. While Democrats are seeking to expand their map into redder and redder territory like North Carolina’s 11th District, which Trump won by nearly 10 points in 2024, Republicans see offensive opportunities in the several seats held by Democrats in seats Trump won.
In 2018, Republicans were defending nearly two dozen incumbents in districts Hillary Clinton won in 2016, mainly in suburban districts. Those purple districts were key to Democrats’ path to victory.
Prior to the redistricting wars, Republicans were set to defend just three seats former Vice President Kamala Harris won, while Democrats had 13 incumbents in seats Trump won. Republicans estimate there are now 16 Democrats in Trump districts and seven Republicans in Harris seats.
Those Democratic crossover districts include Maine’s 2nd District, where Rep. Jared Golden is retiring, and Ohio Rep. Marcy Kaptur’s 9th District, which moved further right under new maps adopted last year.
Republicans are also hoping the economy will improve in a way voters appreciate ahead of November.
“In 2018 we had a millstone around our necks in terms of healthcare from the very start of the first week of the Trump presidency, and it really didn’t let up,” said Matt Gorman, who served as the NRCC’s communications director in 2018. “Here, it’s far more fluid.”
Gorman pointed to progress on inflation and fast economic growth. He said Republicans are betting voters will feel those changes ahead of Election Day.
“The question is will it get to the public fast enough to satisfy them? That’s the key. That’s the bet that they laid down,” he said.
Trump’s recent trip to Iowa highlighted another issue facing Republicans: the president’s voters don’t necessarily turn out for other Republicans, particularly when his name is not on the ballot as it was in 2024.
While the president won Iowa’s 1st District by eight points in that election, Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks held onto the seat by a fraction of a point – just 799 votes. Trump also carried Rep. Zach Nunn’s 3rd District by a wider margin than the incumbent.
Trump’s visit is part of what Republicans hope will be a broader, more sustained effort to convince his supporters to turn out. White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles has said Trump will campaign “like its 2024.”
“We need his people to turn out, obviously,” said Chamberlain, of the Republican Main Street Partnership. “So he’s going to work on doing that, helping us.”
How redistricting affects the map
As of now, Republicans are narrowly winning the redistricting war, based on a CNN analysis. New maps could help Republicans pick up as many as nine additional seats – five in Texas, two in Ohio and one each in Missouri and North Carolina. Democrats, meanwhile, are in position to gain up to five seats in California and one in Utah under redrawn lines.
But the midcycle redistricting wars are far from settled. Democrats are hoping to gain an additional seat in Maryland, where the legislature is considering a new map, and Virginia, where lawmakers will ask voters to approve a map that could deliver the party as many as four more seats. Voters in Missouri could also overturn that state’s map in a referendum process.
No comments:
Post a Comment